My Vikings Draft Prediction

I've tossed around so many different ideas for what the Vikings may do this Thursday (only two more days!), I thought I might as well make a single projection, including trades, for each of their picks. I'm fully expecting to be wrong, but here goes nothing.

With the 8th overall pick in the draft, the Vikings select: Blake Bortles, QB UCF.

Not the scenerio I'd like, but I think this is who it's going to be. I would very much like to trade down, but I doubt anybody is going to be willing to trade up to 8 after all the blue-chip players are gone. And if we're going quarterback here, and he doesn't have to start right away, I would agree with the Bortles decision.

from: goodgamebro.com

With the 40th pick in the draft, the Vikings select: Kyle Van Noy, OLB BYU.
Yes, this might be a stretch, but I think it is very possible. At the end of the college season, Van Noy was toted as a 3-4 outside linebacker. But over the past month, analysts have taken a closer look at him and come to the conclusion that he fits better in a 4-3. I would be ecstatic with this pick. He's easily a plug-in starter opposite Greenway.

from: philly.com

With the 72nd pick in the draft, the Vikings select: Pierre Desir, CB Lindenwood.
This one could be a corner or a guard. I was tempted to put T/G Billy Turner here, but I think the Vikings are more comfortable with their offensive line than they are with their secondary. Stanley Jean-Baptiste could be another nice selection here, but I really think he will be gone.

from: msn.foxsports.com

With the 96th pick in the draft, the Vikings select: Ed Reynolds, S Stanford.
I have done no research on him, but I really think the Vikings are going to have a great opportunity to fill each of their needs in the top rounds of the draft. Ed Reynolds, 6'1" and 207 lbs, would be a good addition beside Harrison Smith.

from: m.dailyprogress.com

With the 108th pick in the draft, the Viking select: Shayne Skov, ILB Stanford.
Skov may not be able to beat Audie Cole out of the MLB spot immediately, but if Cole doesn't step up, Skov could be starting by the end of the year.

from: gostanford.com

With the 148th pick in the draft, the Vikings select: De'Anthony Thomas, OW Oregon.
It's time to pull the trigger on Thomas. Wait any longer, and he will be gone. It's possible he may even be gone before this, but I think there's a good chance he'll last this long.

from: chiefs360.com

With the 184th pick in the draft, the Vikings select: Laurent Duvernay-Tardif, G McGill (Canada).
They need another offensive lineman. Duvernay-Tardif could play tackle or guard. We need backups at both position, and he may be able to compete with Charlie Johnson or Jeff Baca for a starting spot.

from: ici.radio-canada.ca

With the 223rd pick in the draft, the Vikings select: Isaiah Johnson, S Georgia Tech.
I honestly have no idea at this point in the draft, but of all the positions I could see them double dipping at, I think safety would be the smartest one to do so.

from: zimbio.com

The latter rounds were really tough. It obviously depends on how things go in front, and whether or not the Vikings get any trade offers. I really don't think they will be able to trade the 8th pick. Anyway, since it's easier, below is how I would like the Vikings draft to go:

With the 8th overall pick in the draft, the Vikings select: trade down with the Ravens, getting the 17th overall pick and the Ravens' 2015 second round and 2015 third round pick. Why would I want future picks? Yeah, I kind of love Marcus Mariota, and these picks would give us more ammunition to trade up for him.

With the 17th overall pick in the draft, the Vikings select: C.J. Mosley, ILB Alabama. 

Yeah, definite upgrade and would be a three down player for years to come.

from: bamahammer.com

With the 40th pick in the draft, the Vikings select: Kyle Van Noy, OLB BYU.
Yes, my pick stays the same, even after picking Mosley with the first. With Van Noy, Mosley, and Greenway as our starting linebackers we would turn what may have been the weakest unit on defense into the strongest unit with two picks.

With the 72nd pick in the draft, the Vikings select: Pierre Desir, CB Lindenwood.
This one doesn't change either. Desir may not be able to beat out Munnerlyn for the starting spot beside Xavier Rhodes this year, but he'd be able to contribute a ton. 

With the 96th pick in the draft, the Vikings select: AJ McCarron, QB Alabama.

He won't be starting right away. He'll sit behind Cassel for at least one year, if not two (unless we get Mariota, which I would love). It'd be nice to have a quarterback from a winning program for a change.

from: sportsillustrated.cnn.com

With the 108th pick in the draft, the Vikings select: Billy Turner, T/G N Dakota State.

I think he could possibly start at left guard. If not, he would be a great backup at either guard spot and either tackle spot.

from: bleacherreport.com

With the 148th pick in the draft, the Vikings select: De'Anthony Thomas, OW Oregon.

Same thing here. I love Oregon players, and Thomas would fit the type of scheme Norv Turner has run in the past. Thomas won't help in pass blocking, but he'll be great on screens and even motioning out of the backfield before the snap.

With the 184th pick in the draft, the Vikings select: Logan Thomas, QB Virginia Tech.

This is a luxury pick. I would only want this pick if Thomas was willing to switch to tight end. If that were the case, we should only run two tight end sets, where Rudolph or Thomas could be stretched out wide in a slot position and the other in tight. Just imagine: Patterson spread out wide with Rudolph on the same side in tight with the line, then Jennings on the opposite side with Thomas lined up in the slot. Oh, and AP in the backfield. Hmm, awesome? Ya, duh. 

from: sportsillustrated.cnn.com

With the 223rd pick in the draft, the Vikings select: Isaiah Johnson, S Georgia Tech.

   I like this pick as well. We need help at safety, and Isaiah Johnson would be a good pick this late in the draft. 

I doubt this scenario will happen. Like I mentioned above, I don't think the Vikings will be able to trade down from 8. That means they will likely select a quarterback. I actually seem to be leaning back towards Bridgewater, but that just means I would be ok with Bridgwater or Bortles (though please, please, Spielman, not Manziel). I also doubt Logan Thomas is even on the Vikings draft board. They don't need a quarterback that will take that much developing, and it would be big news if Thomas was willing to switch positions. 

But, oh, if this is how the draft turns out? Our front four should be much better with Linval Joseph and as long as Everson Griffin's production takes the leap it should when moving from a backup role to starting. We'd have Greenway, Mosley, and Van Noy at the linebacker position. Greenway could even step off the field in nickel formations as Van Noy and Mosley are good in coverage. Then we'd have Rhodes, Desir, and Munnerlyn, plus Harrison Smith and Isaiah Johnson if he shows a surprising spark. That seems like a defense built to succeed for a long time. I think I gushed enough about the offense in my brief synopsis of the Logan Thomas selection, so I'll hold off on that. Less than two days now. 

Under the Radar 2014 Draft Prospects: LB Kyle Van Noy, BYU

Van Noy was a tough one to lump under this heading as he isn't one you'd think of as 'under the radar'. That's because most of us have heard of him. He's ranked as the third best pass rushing linebacker, behind Khalil Mack and Anthony Barr (though Dee Ford and Jeremiah Attaochu could also be ahead of him). However, the same things that are being said about Mack-that he could play any linebacker position in any system, and a 4-3 defensive end in a pinch-are being said about Van Noy. At 6'3" and 245 lbs, he's about the same size as the other two. The only thing certain about when he will go in the draft is that it will be after Mack and Barr. Other than that. he's been predicted to go all over the place. I wanted to see why so many people have differing opinions of him.

from: usatoday.com

There are so many good websites that have detailed descriptions of draft prospects. Most include stats from the player's career, and some include all the combine measurables. Bleacherreport.com is one of those. His height and weight are mentioned above, but his other measurables include a 31 5/8" arm length, and 9 5/8" hands. According to people who know these things, those are a bit on the small side. None of his workouts wowed: a 32 1/2" vertical jump, a 9'4" broad jump, and a very average 4.71 40 yard dash. That's the evidence people who believe Van Noy is a second round prospect at best, if not a third or even fourth, point to. His lack of athleticism means his potential is limited, some say. Bleacherreport.com does cite the lack of athleticism as a knock on Van Noy, and they also list his poor man coverage ability. But his list of positives is much longer. By far his best aspect is his instincts. He may not be the fastest player on the field, or even the top ten fastest on the field, but you wouldn't know it by watching his tape. His reaction to the play is so quick that he can usually get a step or two before anyone else reacts. Along with instincts, Van Noy will go for the ball. A few times I saw he went for the sack but saw a better chance to strip the ball. That results in quick turnovers and more chances for his team to score, something that every team would love. Being toted as a 3-4 rushing linebacker, he would obviously need to have good pass rushing moves. Bleacherreport.com says he does, especially his spin move back to the inside gap. He can set the edge in the run game, which would be a necessary skill for an outside linebacker in a 3-4. The last positive I keyed in on was that he has experience at multiple defensive positions. While I doubt anyone would stick him back as a safety, he could comfortable play all linebacker spots in any scheme, and though undersized, could hold his own as an end in a 4-3.

Now let's go to a side that doesn't think Van Noy is so great. The draft profile on nfl.com lists the same strengths and weaknesses that bleacherreport.com does, but adds a few other weaknesses that stood out to me. They say he is a "hit-or-miss run defender", which is not good if you're a linebacker. The best linebackers are often described as tackling machines (see: Kuechly, Luke). He's also stuck with an average motor so they say. That's never a good thing. Their overall assessment is that is a best fit as a 3-4 outside linebacker, but could probably manage as a Will or Sam linebacker in a 4-3. Nfl.com says he's a 3rd or 4th round pick. Ouch. This profile, however, does mention some of the off-field issues Van Noy has struggled with, which are minor, but they add to an assessment of who he is. I'm not going to put them down here, but here's the link if you'd like to read them: Kyle Van Noy NFL.com Draft Profile.

Obviously I don't agree with that assessment, as I'm writing this piece because I think Van Noy would be a great fit with the Vikings. Hence my next source, a New York Giants blog of all things: Big Blue View on Kyle Van Noy. In Big Blue View, author Invictus XI sifts through all the defensive snaps Van Noy plays in BYU's game against Utah State and grades them in the same manner as ProFootballFocus would, +2 being the highest grade for a play and -2 the lowest. Granted, this was only one game, but Invictus XI comes to the conclusion that pass rushing seems to be Van Noy's weakest skill. His run stopping ability and zone coverage skills grade out much higher. The conclusion? He would be a great 4-3 linebacker!

from: examiner.com

The Vikings could easily and gladly find a place for Van Noy. I don't see him as a middle linebacker. He'd probably be better than Audie Cole, but Cole is a better middle linebacker than any of the other options we have at whatever outside spot Chad Greenway doesn't play. Oddly enough, when reading Van Noy's profile, I believe he sounds a lot like Greenway. They are about the same size, aren't amazing athletes, but they make up for it with awareness and instincts. You might say it would be better to have a different skillset for our other linebacker spot, maybe a better coverage linebacker (Christian Kirksey? Iowa tandem?), but Greenway is getting up there in age. He still has great awareness, but his burst and block shedding ability seem to be diminishing. Van Noy could provide the pop we need on the other side, with his burst and his pass rushing ability, allowing Greenway to drop into coverage a bit more or clean up the mess after the line of scrimmage pile breaks down. Remember what Mike Zimmer turned Vontaze Burfict into last year? Burfict used his crazy burst and block shedding ability to rack up the most tackles in the NFL. I think Van Noy could provide that same level of production, and probably almost immediately.

Now, where to select him? He's not a third or fourth round pick. If he falls to the back half of the second, someone is going to be very lucky. I don't want the Vikings to take Van Noy with the 8th overall pick, but I'm a little afraid that he won't be there when we pick in the second round. If a miracle happens and Mack falls to us, and we don't trade down then, we obviously don't need Mack. I would love for Van Noy to be available in the second when we pick, but he may go at the bottom of the first or the very top of the second. If we take a quarterback with the first pick, we may need to trade pack into the bottom of the first to grab Van Noy. If Spielman doesn't see a cornerback that he really likes in the second, I could see trading up being an option. Only six more days. Six more, agonizing, grueling days.