Friday, May 9, 2014

First Round Analysis - Teddy Bridgewater

Yes, the Bills moving up to 4 to grab Sammy Watkins was a great trade (even though they had to give up a lot), but I don't think it was as great as the Vikings moving back up to the tail end of the 1st to grab Teddy Bridgewater (I may be a bit biased, but it was still a great move). We pretty much swapped our second round pick for their first, then also gave them our fourth. That's a great deal as we stole Bridgewater before the Texans could pick at the top of the second. Granted, I don't have a clue who the Texans would have taken, but Bridgewater was the most likely candidate. We needed a quarterback, and we easily got the most NFL ready one in the draft. This was a steal at the 32nd pick.

I've done some research on Blake Bortles, as I really thought that's who the Vikings would take at 8, but other than comparing his stats to Bridgewater, I haven't really looked at the Louisville quarterback in depth. Time to change that.

Teddy Bridgewater, QB Louisville:
from: bostonherald.com
There were and still are many knocks on Teddy Bridgewater. He dropped from the projected 1st overall pick all the way down to the second round on most mock drafts. His pro day is what most people point to, as he had an average showing, overthrowing receivers on a couple throws and just flat out missing them on a few more. That was enough to turn some people off, as they wondered how he could be effective in a game situation if he couldn't make the throws in shorts and a t-shirt with no pressure in his face. To disprove that, you only have to look at his tape. While he does show some errant passes every once in a while (what quarterback doesn't throw the occasional dud?), his larger body of work shows very good accuracy. He also threw without a glove at his pro day, while he played with one for every game of the 2013 season. He said he'd been training without one and was confident he could throw without it. After his pro day, he said he should have stuck with what worked for him; you can bet he'll be throwing with the glove come training camp.

The next biggest fault rolling around the media is his size. Teddy is 6'2" and about 214 lbs. They say he's too skinny, that he'll get hurt a lot unless he bulks up. The best refutation of that claim is when comparing him to other quarterbacks in the draft. Did anyone hear any critiques of Derek Carr's size? No, they didn't. People only talk about his arm strength. Carr just happens to be 6'2" and 214 lbs as well. So there.

I absolutely love Bleacher Report. Again, I'll be leaning heavily on their analysis of Bridgewater and include a chart listing his ratings in different aspects of his position.
from: bleacherreport.com
His arm strength has been picked at a bit, as he struggles on deep passes occasionally because he doesn't get that extra oomph that prospects like Mettenberger and Carr get. But Bridgewater has plenty of arm strength to succeed in the NFL. The chart shows him at an 8 for arm strength. That's plenty. Christian Ponder doesn't have great arm strength, and even though he didn't pan out, I don't remember thinking that that portion of his game needed work.

His accuracy is probably his most talked about feature. I know I mentioned above how he lets the occasional throw get away from him, but the other 97% of throws he's spot on. He's got the touch to throw a receiver open that could have taken a while to teach, and he can fit it into tight windows with a bullet if he needs to. His mechanics go a long way towards his accuracy as well. Blake Bortles, Derek Carr, and even Johnny Manziel may need some work on their throwing motion. Bortles's pro day form looked better, but he and Carr both had issues throwing with their arm instead of incorporating their legs as well. I think I've mentioned before that I don't have much experience in football other than what I've watched and listened to, but take a look at the picture below. To me, that is a great example of form when throwing. He's planted his back leg and is using it to drive forward, increasing the spin and power of his arm motion. His accuracy and mechanics, meshed with his decision making-rated a 9 like his accuracy-is a combination that fits the exact mold of what we need in a quarterback. With Adrian Peterson, we don't need a quarterback to throw for 5,000 yards and 50 touchdowns. We need someone who can move the ball down the field when it's needed, but most of all, to not turn the ball over. Last year, Bridgewater had a 71% completion percentage and threw 31 touchdowns compared to only 4 interceptions. That is fantastic and is exactly the type of passer the Vikings need.
from: hereisthecity.com
The aspect of Bridgewater's game that is the least talked about and is probably his greatest strength is his pocket presence. The chart from Bleacher Report gives him a 10 in this category. Take a look at this video posted by Deverell King:
He has an uncanny ability to get away from rushers and stay within the pocket until he makes a clean throw. That's what the Vikings need. Our line is very good, even if Charlie Johnson stays at left guard (he's good in pass coverage, right?). We don't need a Johnny Manziel who is going to roll all the way out to one side if he senses pressure. We need a guy who moves with the pocket until he can make the correct throw. Norv Turner's Air Coryell system (as long as that's what he decides to implement) is founded on deeper routes that take a bit longer to run than those of most West Coast offenses. The few extra tenths of seconds Bridgewater can buy us will be vital to completing that pass to Patterson running a fifteen yard in route.

I'm not quite sure if this fits in with intangibles, but Bridgewater ran a pro style offense. By 'ran a pro style offense' I mean he actually ran it. Unlike most quarterbacks in this draft, Bridgewater took a few moments at the line of scrimmage to scan the defense. If he saw something he didn't like, he was allowed to change the play. Check out this article on Bridgewater on MMQB: The Skinny on Teddy. He apparently devoured the play book and progression system that Louisville ran (read the article for more information). The best part of the article is that he created the offensive playbook Louisville ran and defensive playbooks he'd be up against on an Xbox game (has to be NCAA or Madden), and played it to get a better feel for the progression reads. Apparently he's only lost once, ever. Seriously Vikings fans, after you read this article, if you were a Manziel supporter, you'll forget about him. If you were already a Bridgewater supporter, you'll go nuts.
from: atlanticcoastconvos.com
His potential is the last thing I want to look at. The Bleacher Report chart gives him a 9, which if that holds true we are set for at least the next ten years (barring serious injury, of course). But we have a couple options with Bridgewater. I know most people are going to want him to start. I kind of do, too. I know he will be better than Christian Ponder; he has to be. I bet if he starts for us we have a good chance of going 8-8. On the flip side, Matt Cassell will probably play decent for us as well, and Bridgewater may benefit from spending a year as a backup. I understand Adrian Peterson isn't getting younger, but the man is ridiculous. Sure, his production is likely to take a dip with age, but that dip in production will only make him five steps better than all the other backs in the league, as opposed to six steps. I am not a coach, nor do I have any real personal experience with football (I did play in middle school), but I say start Cassell for the year. When the 2015-2016 season rolls around, we could start Bridgewater and actually have a balanced offense. The last time I felt like we had that was in the 2009-2010 season, the first year we had Brett Favre. That took us all the way to the NFC Championship. 

Even if things should go drastically wrong next year and we end up with the 1st or 2nd pick, I'd recommend trading out or taking someone other than Marcus Mariota. And I love Mariota. Like, a lot. But I am that high on Teddy Bridgewater. He's going to be great for us. Props to the Vikings and everyone that helped make this pick happen; they did a great job. 

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