Tuesday, May 13, 2014

5th Round Draft Analysis - David Yankey

The Vikings finally took a guard in the fifth round. I would have preferred the position be addressed earlier, but there were so many positions the Vikings needed to address that one position had to fall through the cracks. But David Yankey continued to fall and the Vikings were glad to snag him. 

David Yankey, G Stanford:
from: guardianlv.com
At 6'5" and 315 lbs, Yankey played left tackle in college but projects as a prototypical offensive guard. He's tough, something Spielman apparently likes in his offensive lineman (who doesn't?). Let's go to the chart.
from: bleacherreport.com
This chart was obviously made by someone else. But it provides a good jumping off point to talk about the different strengths and weaknesses of Yankey's game. Size and feet don't need much attention here. He's obviously a great size and his feet are probably proportional to his body. All seems good to me there.

He's a great run blocker. The chart rates his ability in that aspect at an 8.5. From the analyses I've read about him, that's about right. That toughness I mentioned above comes into play heavily in the run game. Bleacher Report says he has a 'desire to hit somebody'. That's something I would think of more in a defensive player, yet it's actually a positive in an offensive lineman as well. Yankey also plays with a low center of gravity and his head up, keeping him in great position throughout the play. He also uses his hands well in tight spaces, great for keeping defensive tackles and blitzing linebackers away from the ball carrier. 
from: college-football.si.com
The chart gives him an 8 in quickness and for his motor. Those are great to have in combination. I feel like everyone I look closely into is lauded for the quick first step. Someone's step has to be quicker than someone else's. Anyway, Yankey keeps going, especially when run blocking.

Now for the negatives. I feel like this chart rates Yankey better than he really is. If these numbers are correct, Yankey should have gone before the 5th round. His pass blocking was rated at a 7.5, but that's one of his weakest abilities. When pass blocking, he tends to drop his head which allows the defensive player to get a better move on him. He also seems to struggle in one on one assignments. His initial hit is strong, but he struggles with his footwork and often allows the defender past him, especially to the outside.

Another knock on him is his athletic ability. Yankey ran the 4th slowest time of all offensive lineman that tested at the combine. He also ran the 5th slowest short shuttle time. He's not fast and he's not agile. For a guard, that isn't a huge downer, but it does mean he may never become an elite guard. Even for the maulers on the inside, a little wiggle is always a good thing.
from: espn.go.com
Bleacher Report projected him to go somewhere in the 2nd round. Nfl.com projected round 2 to round 3. That obviously didn't happen, and his poor combine numbers were part of the reason he dropped so far. He also didn't have a great 2013 season. But in his senior year of high school, Yankey was only 240 lbs. He's grown a bunch every year and was forced to learn how to adapt to his body. With 34" arms, you would think he's done growing and can now settle in to learning how to use his body. Yankey will see playing time this year, but he most likely isn't going to beat Charlie Johnson out for the starting left guard spot. The Stanford product will need to show improvement in the areas outlined above before he can become a starter. Give him a year, though, and he'll be a great addition to a line that focuses heavily on the run.

My Opinion of the Vikings Draft

I am no football genius. I do not spend hours watching film of prospects so I know exactly what their strengths and weaknesses are. I also am not an expert on the type of schemes the Vikings run, especially since both sides of the ball should look different this year. I am, however, a crazy fan of the Vikings and know just enough that I feel like my opinions are justified (ha ha). So here's my analysis of the Vikings 2014 NFL draft.

Overall grade: B+

The first round selections of Anthony Barr and Teddy Bridgewater are amazing. My grade for the first round would be an A+. We need linebackers, and Barr provides the pass rushing outside linebacker that Zimmer wanted for his 4-3 scheme. A consistent pass rush from somebody other than our front four is a very welcome addition. An article on ESPN I read said linebackers in our old Cover 2 scheme blitzed on passing downs 11% of the time. Expect that to triple this year, especially for Barr. He's only played on the defensive side of the ball for two years, so he'll need to learn a lot, but he played so well and even improved during those years that he shouldn't take long to grasp what Zimmer and defensive coordinator George Edwards throw at him. Barr has kind of disappeared from the spotlight with the Bridgewater pick, but the UCLA linebacker is a lock for a starting position, while Bridgewater will most likely sit for the whole year.
from: watercoolersports.com
Teddy Bridgewater had dropped a lot since he declared for the draft, but that turned out to be extremely beneficial for the Vikings. I had preferred to wait on a quarterback until at least the third round, but I'm happy with how this turned out. I've read a lot more on Bridgewater (for more details, see my profile of him), and I think he's a great fit for the Vikings. As long as we have AP (which may not be too many more years if you've read the rumors) we just need Bridgewater to be a game manager. Ponder threw too many interceptions and struggled to keep the chains moving when we needed him to. Bridgewater could start immediately and take care of the ball, or he could come in a year after he's learned from Cassel. Also, if the dreaded day when we don't have AP should come, I think Bridgewater has all the tools necessary to be an amazing quarterback in the league. I think Spielman got this quarterback right, and he didn't have to give up much for it.


from: seahawks.com
The third round is where things get real shaky. We took Scott Crichton, a defensive end from Oregon State, and Jerrick McKinnon, a running back from Georgia Southern. Both of these picks confuse me. Crichton looks to be a decent pickup, but we're okay at end. Brian Robison and Everson Griffen are set to start, and we signed Corey Wootten in free agency who will be a solid backup. I'd have liked to go guard here, with Spencer Long and Chris Watt both still available. Either of those would have gotten great playing time and could even have challenged Charlie Johnson for the starting left guard spot. Crichton must have been higher on the Vikings' draft board, otherwise this pick doesn't make sense.


from: atlantafalcons.blog.ajc.com
Jerrick McKinnon is even more of a head scratcher. I'm cool with project players. I feel like we have a great staff to mold players into the best they can be, but McKinnon is going to need more molding than a lot of others. His athletic ability is through the roof (see my profile on him for more info), which is most likely why he was picked. We did need a back that could give AP a breather now and then and preferably one that could do more than pound a hole for a few yards. But McKinnon played cornerback for the first couple years of his career, then shifted to a quarterback in a triple option system. I think he started at running back only half of his senior season. See what I'm getting at? He has very little experience at the position we drafted him for. Also, the triple option system he ran was way different from the pro style offense he'll be in with the Vikings. As far as a learning curve, McKinnon's will be one of the steepest for any of the prospects. I would have preferred we take a defensive back here (I was super angry that we didn't take Pierre Desir), but if the Vikings had to go running back, why not go De'Anthony Thomas or Ka'Deem Carey? They have more experience positionally and in the scheme they've run. They also both would fit the type of receiving back that Turner has liked to have, especially Thomas. McKinnon's athletic ability must have stuck out enough for the Vikings to pass on everyone else.


The Vikings did take a guard, David Yankey, in the 5th. This isn't a flashy pick but neither is it a terrible pick. He'll be a solid backup for a few years and then may be able to push for a starting spot. He's smart and has brawler tendencies, but experts say his ceiling isn't very high due to limited athletic ability.

Two cornerbacks were taken in the 6th round, Antone Exum from Virginia Tech, and Kendall James from Maine. I really like the Exum pick. Before he hurt his knees, he looked like a great corner. He only played in three games last year and wasn't nearly as good. If he can get back to a similar form as he was in 2012, he will be a great addition, especially since it looks like he'll be better at safety than corner, standing 6' tall and around 215 lbs. James is small at 5'10" and 180 lbs, but at the very least he will provide good competition at the corner spot.
Antone Exum; from: cypheravenue.com
In the 7th round, the Vikings drafted defensive tackle Shamar Stephen, outside linebacker Brandon Watts, and cornerback Jabari Price. Stephen has a shot to make the roster as a backup at the nose tackle position if the Vikings decide to keep five tackles on the roster. Watts is a bit undersized at 225 lbs, but he's fast. Like Larry Dean, Watts could find a spot on the roster by providing a spark in the return game. Price will probably fill the same role as Kendall James, just to provide more competition in the backfield.
from: yellowjackedup.com
The first round was amazing! The 5th through the 7th wasn't flashy, but we got some solid picks that will either provide good backup minutes or push our current players to a higher level of competition. The reason my overall grade for the draft is a B+ is solely because of that 3rd round. I really wanted De'Anthony Thomas and Pierre Desir, and I think they both would have been locks to make the roster. Thomas would have been a reach in the 3rd, so I am fine that we didn't get him. But Desir was still there at the end of the 3rd. Picking him would have shifted my criticism of the Crichton pick to a glowing commendation. We would definitely have still gone after a running back, but there were plenty left. Storm Johnson from UCF wasn't taken until the 7th by the Jaguars. That's a steal. Nfl.com listed him as a late 4th or early 5th. 

Overall though, I am pleased. Obviously, at this time of year everyone is going to say their team got better. Some teams will get better, but some will get worse. That's what happens. If the Vikings are one of those teams that gets worse, I believe we're at least on the right track. We have some pieces that may need a year or two to begin paying dividends, but those should be great. I hate to say it, but I don't see us making the playoffs this year. However, in two or three years, I see us making the playoffs fairly regularly. We've got a great staff and great players, younger and not as young, that will make us a force to be reckoned with. 

Monday, May 12, 2014

3rd Round Draft Analysis - Scott Crichton and Jerrick McKinnon

The Vikings traded their second round pick-and fourth-to move up to the end of the 1st round. They grabbed Teddy Bridgewater with that pick, so I am extremely happy. But they still had two 3rd round picks. I'm not going to convey my opinions on these picks (I'll do that later); I am simply going to take a closer look at the prospects. 

Scott Crichton, DE Oregon State:
from: cbssports.com
A third round pick always has a chance of starting. However, the Vikings are set with their starters at defensive end in Brian Robison and Everson Griffin. They also picked up Corey Wootten in free agency, who should provide good rotational minutes. After that, though, we don't have much. Scott Crichton will fill a backup role immediately and should do a good job. 
from: bleacherreport.com
As you can see from the chart, he's no Jadeveon Clowney. But he's not expected to be. Crichton's weakest skill (other than flexibility) is his pass rushing ability. He stands too tall, and other than his initial burst, he doesn't have great speed. He also doesn't turn the corner when rushing the passer well, struggling to get the bend necessary to beat the tackle around the outside. He's much better when lined up directly on the tackle, allowing him to power through blocks.

The other major negative of Crichton's game is his lack of athleticism. Keep in mind this is coming from the experts. Every single person in the draft and free agency is twice the athlete I'll ever be. Crichton has good size at 6'3" and 273 lbs, but he won't wow anyone with speed, his pass rushing moves, or really anything at all that you'd see from the best athletes.
from: bleacherreport.com
That being said, Crichton is great in run support. The chart from Bleacher Report gave him a rating of 8. This portion of his game will actually come in handy. From what I've read, Mike Zimmer wants his ends to be able to play the run first and pass second. Besides, the combination of our two current ends, Shariff Floyd, and 1st round addition Anthony Barr will give us plenty of pass rushing ability. Crichton has a great first hit that has stunned tackles in the past, giving him enough time to dissect the play accurately and be in great position to make a play on the ball. Even though he only did 24 reps of 225 lbs at the combine, Crichton is strong for his position as a 4-3 defensive end. He'll need a lot of work if he is ever going to assume a starting role, but at least for the next couple years he should be a very valuable backup.

Jerrick McKinnon, RB Georgia Southern:
from: atlantafalcons.blog.ajc.com
What exactly are we getting from a player who started as a corner, was converted to a quarterback in a triple option system, and finally played the position he was drafted for in his senior year? I typically like to start with the negatives, but I think one of the positives needs to come first. McKinnon did 32 reps of 225 lbs. 32! That's 8 more than Scott Crichton did. Only 10 other players at the combine put up more reps, and other than one tight end, they were all offensive and defensive lineman. He actually tied with Ra'Shede Hageman. Yeah, you know him. The defensive tackle that was just glowing with strength. A 5'9" 209 pound running back put up as much as him. That's nuts.

Let's go to the chart again.
from: bleacherreport.com
As you can see right away, there are plenty of areas McKinnon could improve in. To start with, let's look at McKinnon's ability to break tackles. By look at it, I mean he isn't going to do it often. Even with the 32 reps, he runs too tall to break many tackles. I think Maurice Jones-Drew when I see his size, but Jones-Drew could bust through tackles if the defender only got an arm on him. McKinnon isn't going to that. Not right from the start. 

The two other aspects of McKinnon's game that are lacking are his receiving ability and his pass blocking. But not because he struggles with these. McKinnon was rarely asked to catch passes out of the backfield or stay back and block. Georgia Southern ran a very run heavy offense (they ran a triple option). I have to think he'll be fine in pass coverage when he gets the practice. Combined with his strength, he should be set there. The same with his receiving ability. He was never asked to catch the ball much. Give him some time in Norv Tuner's system and his rating may turn out to be much better.
from: bleacherreport.com
He had a very good combine which displayed how athletic he is. Not only did he bench a lot, but he ran a 4.41 forty yard dash. His agility drills were great as well, leading me to wonder if he may be a bit shiftier than most experts predict. With all that speed, some backs rely solely on their speed and pick a hole as soon as they get the ball. Decent defenses will usually gobble them up quickly. McKinnon lets his blocks develop before exploding through the hold with that great speed. He also has tremendous acceleration, so when that block develops or that hole finally opens up, it takes him no time at all to burst into the opening.

Everybody always talks about intangibles with prospects. Awareness is one of those, but McKinnon has little actual experience at the position the Vikings will be playing him at. However, he has a great work ethic. Not only does he work hard in practice and off the field, he displays a lot of effort in everything he does. The skills are there; now he just needs the time with our coaching staff, and a little help from AP, and things could go very well for him.

Friday, May 9, 2014

First Round Analysis - Teddy Bridgewater

Yes, the Bills moving up to 4 to grab Sammy Watkins was a great trade (even though they had to give up a lot), but I don't think it was as great as the Vikings moving back up to the tail end of the 1st to grab Teddy Bridgewater (I may be a bit biased, but it was still a great move). We pretty much swapped our second round pick for their first, then also gave them our fourth. That's a great deal as we stole Bridgewater before the Texans could pick at the top of the second. Granted, I don't have a clue who the Texans would have taken, but Bridgewater was the most likely candidate. We needed a quarterback, and we easily got the most NFL ready one in the draft. This was a steal at the 32nd pick.

I've done some research on Blake Bortles, as I really thought that's who the Vikings would take at 8, but other than comparing his stats to Bridgewater, I haven't really looked at the Louisville quarterback in depth. Time to change that.

Teddy Bridgewater, QB Louisville:
from: bostonherald.com
There were and still are many knocks on Teddy Bridgewater. He dropped from the projected 1st overall pick all the way down to the second round on most mock drafts. His pro day is what most people point to, as he had an average showing, overthrowing receivers on a couple throws and just flat out missing them on a few more. That was enough to turn some people off, as they wondered how he could be effective in a game situation if he couldn't make the throws in shorts and a t-shirt with no pressure in his face. To disprove that, you only have to look at his tape. While he does show some errant passes every once in a while (what quarterback doesn't throw the occasional dud?), his larger body of work shows very good accuracy. He also threw without a glove at his pro day, while he played with one for every game of the 2013 season. He said he'd been training without one and was confident he could throw without it. After his pro day, he said he should have stuck with what worked for him; you can bet he'll be throwing with the glove come training camp.

The next biggest fault rolling around the media is his size. Teddy is 6'2" and about 214 lbs. They say he's too skinny, that he'll get hurt a lot unless he bulks up. The best refutation of that claim is when comparing him to other quarterbacks in the draft. Did anyone hear any critiques of Derek Carr's size? No, they didn't. People only talk about his arm strength. Carr just happens to be 6'2" and 214 lbs as well. So there.

I absolutely love Bleacher Report. Again, I'll be leaning heavily on their analysis of Bridgewater and include a chart listing his ratings in different aspects of his position.
from: bleacherreport.com
His arm strength has been picked at a bit, as he struggles on deep passes occasionally because he doesn't get that extra oomph that prospects like Mettenberger and Carr get. But Bridgewater has plenty of arm strength to succeed in the NFL. The chart shows him at an 8 for arm strength. That's plenty. Christian Ponder doesn't have great arm strength, and even though he didn't pan out, I don't remember thinking that that portion of his game needed work.

His accuracy is probably his most talked about feature. I know I mentioned above how he lets the occasional throw get away from him, but the other 97% of throws he's spot on. He's got the touch to throw a receiver open that could have taken a while to teach, and he can fit it into tight windows with a bullet if he needs to. His mechanics go a long way towards his accuracy as well. Blake Bortles, Derek Carr, and even Johnny Manziel may need some work on their throwing motion. Bortles's pro day form looked better, but he and Carr both had issues throwing with their arm instead of incorporating their legs as well. I think I've mentioned before that I don't have much experience in football other than what I've watched and listened to, but take a look at the picture below. To me, that is a great example of form when throwing. He's planted his back leg and is using it to drive forward, increasing the spin and power of his arm motion. His accuracy and mechanics, meshed with his decision making-rated a 9 like his accuracy-is a combination that fits the exact mold of what we need in a quarterback. With Adrian Peterson, we don't need a quarterback to throw for 5,000 yards and 50 touchdowns. We need someone who can move the ball down the field when it's needed, but most of all, to not turn the ball over. Last year, Bridgewater had a 71% completion percentage and threw 31 touchdowns compared to only 4 interceptions. That is fantastic and is exactly the type of passer the Vikings need.
from: hereisthecity.com
The aspect of Bridgewater's game that is the least talked about and is probably his greatest strength is his pocket presence. The chart from Bleacher Report gives him a 10 in this category. Take a look at this video posted by Deverell King:
He has an uncanny ability to get away from rushers and stay within the pocket until he makes a clean throw. That's what the Vikings need. Our line is very good, even if Charlie Johnson stays at left guard (he's good in pass coverage, right?). We don't need a Johnny Manziel who is going to roll all the way out to one side if he senses pressure. We need a guy who moves with the pocket until he can make the correct throw. Norv Turner's Air Coryell system (as long as that's what he decides to implement) is founded on deeper routes that take a bit longer to run than those of most West Coast offenses. The few extra tenths of seconds Bridgewater can buy us will be vital to completing that pass to Patterson running a fifteen yard in route.

I'm not quite sure if this fits in with intangibles, but Bridgewater ran a pro style offense. By 'ran a pro style offense' I mean he actually ran it. Unlike most quarterbacks in this draft, Bridgewater took a few moments at the line of scrimmage to scan the defense. If he saw something he didn't like, he was allowed to change the play. Check out this article on Bridgewater on MMQB: The Skinny on Teddy. He apparently devoured the play book and progression system that Louisville ran (read the article for more information). The best part of the article is that he created the offensive playbook Louisville ran and defensive playbooks he'd be up against on an Xbox game (has to be NCAA or Madden), and played it to get a better feel for the progression reads. Apparently he's only lost once, ever. Seriously Vikings fans, after you read this article, if you were a Manziel supporter, you'll forget about him. If you were already a Bridgewater supporter, you'll go nuts.
from: atlanticcoastconvos.com
His potential is the last thing I want to look at. The Bleacher Report chart gives him a 9, which if that holds true we are set for at least the next ten years (barring serious injury, of course). But we have a couple options with Bridgewater. I know most people are going to want him to start. I kind of do, too. I know he will be better than Christian Ponder; he has to be. I bet if he starts for us we have a good chance of going 8-8. On the flip side, Matt Cassell will probably play decent for us as well, and Bridgewater may benefit from spending a year as a backup. I understand Adrian Peterson isn't getting younger, but the man is ridiculous. Sure, his production is likely to take a dip with age, but that dip in production will only make him five steps better than all the other backs in the league, as opposed to six steps. I am not a coach, nor do I have any real personal experience with football (I did play in middle school), but I say start Cassell for the year. When the 2015-2016 season rolls around, we could start Bridgewater and actually have a balanced offense. The last time I felt like we had that was in the 2009-2010 season, the first year we had Brett Favre. That took us all the way to the NFC Championship. 

Even if things should go drastically wrong next year and we end up with the 1st or 2nd pick, I'd recommend trading out or taking someone other than Marcus Mariota. And I love Mariota. Like, a lot. But I am that high on Teddy Bridgewater. He's going to be great for us. Props to the Vikings and everyone that helped make this pick happen; they did a great job. 

First Round Analysis - Anthony Barr

For the third year in a row, the Vikings have at least two first round picks. That's pretty great, considering the talent we've gotten. In 2012 we got Matt Kalil and Harrison Smith, both who should be starting and performing at a very high level for us for years to come. Last year we got Xavier Rhodes, Shariff Floyd, and Cordarrelle Patterson. Patterson burst onto the scene in all three aspects of the offensive game-passing, running, and returning kickoffs-and Norv Turner's offense is going to feature him a lot more this year. Floyd and Rhodes are both going to be assuming starting roles and look to be in good shape to do so. After trading down one spot with the Browns and getting an additional 5th round pick, the Vikings drafted Anthony Barr.

Anthony Barr, OLB UCLA:
from: nfl.si.com
There were rumors floating around about the Vikings being interested in Barr, but I honestly didn't think it would happen. At nearly 6'5" and 255 lbs, he's a bit big for the prototypical 4-3 linebacker size, and he's a bit small for a 4-3 defensive end. He'd been repeatedly mocked to the Titans, who will be running a 3-4 this year, as he is seen as a pass rushing outside linebacker. 

But Barr has all the athletic tools to succeed in any system. While he's only played on the defensive side of the ball for two years, his production during those two years is a good indicator that Barr can grasp a defensive scheme and handle his assignments well. If we're just looking at projection, who knows how high his ceiling could be? He hasn't been playing defense for long. He ran a 4.66 forty yard dash at the combine, which is good, but then he ran a 4.45 at his pro day, which is astounding. He has the sideline to sideline speed that you always hear about that teams covet. 

I'm going to analyze Barr in relation to the different assignments he'll be asked to play. I'm getting most of this information from the scouting report posted on bleacherreport.com. I'm going to start with a graph rating different aspects of Barr's game.
from:bleacherreport.com
Pass Rushing: This is the skill that made him stand out and pushed him into the conversation for a top first round pick. He has a very quick first step (what everyone says about why Jadeveon Clowney will be so good), and then he follows that with tremendous speed. Hence the 8 he scores for initial quickness. He also has a great counter, as in when he gets the tackle to commit to the outside speed rush he cuts underneath to the inside. His crazy agility allows him to pull off those stunts. Yet according to the graph, Barr only registers a 7 overall for pass rushing. That's because he still has plenty to work on. His power moves need the most work. But that can be taught, and I don't have any doubts that we have the right coaches to help with that. A little more strength will help as well (he didn't put up awesome bench numbers), and that's a weight room assignment that he will have many chances to rectify.

from: all22breakdown.com
Run Support: This needs some work. At a 5, the only ranking lower is his strength, which would help immensely in run support. He doesn't shed blocks well, and once a lineman has engaged him he's pretty much out of the play. Most of his power comes from his legs, so once he gets his upper body stronger he should be able to push off easier. He has the awareness-he knows where he needs to be-he just needs more practice and experience. Working against someone like Matt Kalil and learning from Everson Griffin and Brian Robison will benefit him tremendously. Chad Greenway will also be great at showing him the ropes, as Barr will most likely play the opposite linebacker spot. One thing Barr does extremely well in run support is chase the ball carrier from behind, especially when the play is going away from him. It's all about speed and athleticism in those situations, and Barr already has that.
from: nfl.com
Pass Coverage: A prospect scouted as a pass rushing 3-4 outside linebacker probably isn't good in coverage, right? Most of the time, yeah, but that's not the case with Barr. He doesn't have the awareness and experience yet, but he has the speed and agility necessary to play well in space, especially in the zone that I think the Vikings will be running with their linebackers most of the time. At the point he's at now, he gets a rating of 7 for zone coverage, and 6 for man coverage. That's good for a linebacker who will probably be used to rush the passer on most downs. He picked up his role on defense quickly at UCLA, so I don't expect him to struggle for long when learning what his role in Zimmer's 4-3 defense will be. 

I personally do not know what Zimmer's defense is going to look like. The question right now, when discussing Barr, is how often are they going to blitz more than four players. In the past, the Vikings have been all about rushing only their four down lineman. With Barr though, you have to think Zimmer will be sending him at the passer, at least on obvious passing downs. Xavier Rhodes should take a step forward in his ability to cover, and Munnerlyn will help a lot on the back end. The Vikings will still draft a safety yet to hopefully start next to Harrison Smith or to provide valuable rotation minutes, and I still think they take another linebacker who excels in coverage, like Telvin Smith from Florida State or Christian Kirksey from Iowa. Better coverage means we can afford to send another guy to harass the quarterback. I'm exited to see what Barr can do when combined with Robison, Griffin, and Floyd against the NFC North's quarterbacks. A few more plays with Aaron Rodgers on his backside, or watching Cutler and Stafford try to scramble away from pressure, will always be welcome.

Tuesday, May 6, 2014

My Vikings Draft Prediction

I've tossed around so many different ideas for what the Vikings may do this Thursday (only two more days!), I thought I might as well make a single projection, including trades, for each of their picks. I'm fully expecting to be wrong, but here goes nothing.

With the 8th overall pick in the draft, the Vikings select: Blake Bortles, QB UCF.
Not the scenerio I'd like, but I think this is who it's going to be. I would very much like to trade down, but I doubt anybody is going to be willing to trade up to 8 after all the blue-chip players are gone. And if we're going quarterback here, and he doesn't have to start right away, I would agree with the Bortles decision.
from: goodgamebro.com
With the 40th pick in the draft, the Vikings select: Kyle Van Noy, OLB BYU.
Yes, this might be a stretch, but I think it is very possible. At the end of the college season, Van Noy was toted as a 3-4 outside linebacker. But over the past month, analysts have taken a closer look at him and come to the conclusion that he fits better in a 4-3. I would be ecstatic with this pick. He's easily a plug-in starter opposite Greenway.
from: philly.com
With the 72nd pick in the draft, the Vikings select: Pierre Desir, CB Lindenwood.
This one could be a corner or a guard. I was tempted to put T/G Billy Turner here, but I think the Vikings are more comfortable with their offensive line than they are with their secondary. Stanley Jean-Baptiste could be another nice selection here, but I really think he will be gone.
from: msn.foxsports.com
With the 96th pick in the draft, the Vikings select: Ed Reynolds, S Stanford.
I have done no research on him, but I really think the Vikings are going to have a great opportunity to fill each of their needs in the top rounds of the draft. Ed Reynolds, 6'1" and 207 lbs, would be a good addition beside Harrison Smith.
from: m.dailyprogress.com
With the 108th pick in the draft, the Viking select: Shayne Skov, ILB Stanford.
Skov may not be able to beat Audie Cole out of the MLB spot immediately, but if Cole doesn't step up, Skov could be starting by the end of the year.
from: gostanford.com
With the 148th pick in the draft, the Vikings select: De'Anthony Thomas, OW Oregon.
It's time to pull the trigger on Thomas. Wait any longer, and he will be gone. It's possible he may even be gone before this, but I think there's a good chance he'll last this long.
from: chiefs360.com
With the 184th pick in the draft, the Vikings select: Laurent Duvernay-Tardif, G McGill (Canada).
They need another offensive lineman. Duvernay-Tardif could play tackle or guard. We need backups at both position, and he may be able to compete with Charlie Johnson or Jeff Baca for a starting spot.
from: ici.radio-canada.ca
With the 223rd pick in the draft, the Vikings select: Isaiah Johnson, S Georgia Tech.
I honestly have no idea at this point in the draft, but of all the positions I could see them double dipping at, I think safety would be the smartest one to do so.
from: zimbio.com
The latter rounds were really tough. It obviously depends on how things go in front, and whether or not the Vikings get any trade offers. I really don't think they will be able to trade the 8th pick. Anyway, since it's easier, below is how I would like the Vikings draft to go:

With the 8th overall pick in the draft, the Vikings select: trade down with the Ravens, getting the 17th overall pick and the Ravens' 2015 second round and 2015 third round pick. Why would I want future picks? Yeah, I kind of love Marcus Mariota, and these picks would give us more ammunition to trade up for him.

With the 17th overall pick in the draft, the Vikings select: C.J. Mosley, ILB Alabama. 
Yeah, definite upgrade and would be a three down player for years to come.
from: bamahammer.com
With the 40th pick in the draft, the Vikings select: Kyle Van Noy, OLB BYU.
Yes, my pick stays the same, even after picking Mosley with the first. With Van Noy, Mosley, and Greenway as our starting linebackers we would turn what may have been the weakest unit on defense into the strongest unit with two picks.

With the 72nd pick in the draft, the Vikings select: Pierre Desir, CB Lindenwood.
This one doesn't change either. Desir may not be able to beat out Munnerlyn for the starting spot beside Xavier Rhodes this year, but he'd be able to contribute a ton. 

With the 96th pick in the draft, the Vikings select: AJ McCarron, QB Alabama.
He won't be starting right away. He'll sit behind Cassel for at least one year, if not two (unless we get Mariota, which I would love). It'd be nice to have a quarterback from a winning program for a change.
from: sportsillustrated.cnn.com
With the 108th pick in the draft, the Vikings select: Billy Turner, T/G N Dakota State.
I think he could possibly start at left guard. If not, he would be a great backup at either guard spot and either tackle spot.
from: bleacherreport.com
With the 148th pick in the draft, the Vikings select: De'Anthony Thomas, OW Oregon.
Same thing here. I love Oregon players, and Thomas would fit the type of scheme Norv Turner has run in the past. Thomas won't help in pass blocking, but he'll be great on screens and even motioning out of the backfield before the snap.

With the 184th pick in the draft, the Vikings select: Logan Thomas, QB Virginia Tech.
This is a luxury pick. I would only want this pick if Thomas was willing to switch to tight end. If that were the case, we should only run two tight end sets, where Rudolph or Thomas could be stretched out wide in a slot position and the other in tight. Just imagine: Patterson spread out wide with Rudolph on the same side in tight with the line, then Jennings on the opposite side with Thomas lined up in the slot. Oh, and AP in the backfield. Hmm, awesome? Ya, duh. 
from: sportsillustrated.cnn.com
With the 223rd pick in the draft, the Vikings select: Isaiah Johnson, S Georgia Tech.
   I like this pick as well. We need help at safety, and Isaiah Johnson would be a good pick this late in the draft. 

I doubt this scenario will happen. Like I mentioned above, I don't think the Vikings will be able to trade down from 8. That means they will likely select a quarterback. I actually seem to be leaning back towards Bridgewater, but that just means I would be ok with Bridgwater or Bortles (though please, please, Spielman, not Manziel). I also doubt Logan Thomas is even on the Vikings draft board. They don't need a quarterback that will take that much developing, and it would be big news if Thomas was willing to switch positions. 

But, oh, if this is how the draft turns out? Our front four should be much better with Linval Joseph and as long as Everson Griffin's production takes the leap it should when moving from a backup role to starting. We'd have Greenway, Mosley, and Van Noy at the linebacker position. Greenway could even step off the field in nickel formations as Van Noy and Mosley are good in coverage. Then we'd have Rhodes, Desir, and Munnerlyn, plus Harrison Smith and Isaiah Johnson if he shows a surprising spark. That seems like a defense built to succeed for a long time. I think I gushed enough about the offense in my brief synopsis of the Logan Thomas selection, so I'll hold off on that. Less than two days now. 

Monday, May 5, 2014

Under the Radar 2014 Draft Prospects: LB Telvin Smith, Florida State

Winning the BCS National Championship helped Telvin Smith's draft status a lot. Tallying fifteen total tackles (according to espn.com), Smith was a big part of that win. His stats for the year included approximately 83 tackles, two sacks, and two interceptions. Smith returned both of those interceptions for touchdowns. He has his upsides and his downsides, but he could turn into a very good player. Shall we take a look?

I want to start with the negatives to get them out of the way and to try and refute them. The largest one is plain to see. Telvin Smith is 6'3"-great height-but he's only 218 lbs. That's the size of a safety, albeit a big safety. Kam Chancellor of the Seahawks plays strong safety at 6'3" and 232 lbs. Taylor Mays of the Bengals plays free safety at 6'3" and 220 lbs. Get the idea? The naysayers of Telvin Smith say he has too small a frame, that he looks much more like a safety, and that he may even have a better chance of making it with a position switch.
from: news.yahoo.com
Most of the other negatives have to do with his size. He has issues shedding blocks, he can disappear when trying to navigate through traffic, and he struggles to bring down larger backs. Smith also isn't a great blitzer. There's also questions that since he played with such a great defensive line at Florida State, he really hasn't had to contend with blockers much.

"He can get bigger!" most supporters of Telvin Smith say. And, honestly, if he wants to play linebacker he will need to get bigger. But that's possible. If I remember right, Matt Kalil came in at about 295 lbs. Once the Vikings got hold of him he's been staying around 305. Some athletes-and others-have extremely fast metabolisms. A lot of work has to go into keeping someone's weight up, especially if they are a professional athlete. But there is a lot of money in each franchise of the National Football League, and there are people that could help Telvin Smith bulk up if that's what he wanted to do. So if the Vikings pass on a bunch of linebackers in the first few rounds, or they decide to grab another one, I don't see Smith's weight being an issue.

Telvin Smith is great in pass coverage. I'm posting a graph from bleacherreport.com below that outlines his rating at different skills. Check his rating at pass coverage. Some of you are probably saying he better be good in coverage if he's going to play that small. But here's my thinking. Chad Greenway is getting older, but he can still hold down the strongside spot for a few more years, if not longer. We could probably be okay with Audie Cole in the middle, but if we land C.J. Mosley or Chris Borland, we'd have that spot locked down. Then we'd just need a weakside linebacker, and what do weakside linebackers need to be able to do? Well, yes, I'm sure the assignment is different in different schemes, but if our defensive line is going to be predominantly responsible for putting pressure on the quarterback, then linebackers need to be good in pass coverage (we've been a cover 2 team for as long as I've been intensely obsessed with the Vikings). The league has also become pass heavy, and linebackers who excel in coverage can't ever be a bad thing.

from: bleacherreport.com
Many of the reasons he is good in pass coverage make him good in defending the run as well. He's fast-he ran a 4.53 at the combine. He can change direction very quickly and suddenly, which is a great skill to have when going up against a Reggie Bush or LeSean McCoy. He keeps his eyes up and reads the play quickly. Though not as beneficial in pass defense, Smith is great at avoiding blocks with his speed and agility. Granted, he's had to compensate for his smaller size, but it's nice to know he did compensate.

One last positive I want to mention. Nfl.com notes that Telvin Smith is a "fiery, emotional leader on the field." I think the Vikings play with emotion (I know Harrison Smith certainly does), and they have good leadership. Even though Jared Allen and Kevin Williams are gone, we still have Greenway and Robison, who may need to step up a bit. But the Vikings could use someone to pump them up when they are behind but also when they are ahead. There were quite a few games last year that we lost by a few points because we gave up the lead, or we didn't push enough to overcome the few times we were down by only a touchdown or couple of field goals.

I am not worried about his lack of size. That can be helped, if Smith is willing to put in the work. He would be a true weakside linebacker, which we could use. If Zimmer implements the same defensive scheme with the Vikings that he did with the Bengals, and there's no guarantee he will, Greenway is no Vontaze Burfict; he just doesn't have the raw power. But Greenway has already been playing the strongside, and he's been doing great at it since he was drafted in 2006. With Smith at the weakside, and either someone new in the middle or Audie Cole, we would be another step ahead on building a great defense. If we grabbed C.J. Mosley in the first, preferably with a trade down, then Telvin Smith in the fourth if he's available, we would be looking golden. I know we drafted Gerald Hodges and Michael Mauti last year, but I'm all for two linebackers in this draft, and maybe a bit higher this time. We all know how Jasper Brinkley Round 2 is going to turn out.
from: miamiherald.typepad.com
Recent news in the NFL Draft sphere is all about the prospects that failed drug tests at the combine. Telvin Smith is one of them. However, his draft stock isn't expected to fall very far because of it. If anything, this may be good for the Vikings. They may be able to nab him in the fifth. Granted, I would want to make sure he isn't doing any illegal substances now or if they draft him. 

Friday, May 2, 2014

Under the Radar 2014 Draft Prospects: QB Brett Smith, Wyoming

Brett Smith? Brett Smith. Who is Brett Smith? Has anyone heard of Brett Smith? I hadn't until I read a bleacherreport article written by Ryan Riddle. Brett Smith played quarterback for the Wyoming Cowboys, starting all three seasons. He went to high school in Oregon and set records, yet didn't receive any attention from local schools Oregon and Oregon State. Only two FBS schools offered him a scholarship. In the world of football and all its jargon, that 'put a chip on his shoulder'. Over three years, Smith threw for 8,829 yards and 76 touchdowns to 28 interceptions. Compare that to Teddy Bridgewater who threw for 9,817 yards, 72 touchdowns, and 24 interceptions. Yeah, yeah, Smith was playing in the Mountain West Conference, but still. Looking at numbers alone, those are good. And guess what else? Smith wasn't invited to the combine.

So there's no analyzing his combine numbers, but that's fine. If we're going to hold a lot of stock in pro days (cough, cough, Teddy), then check out Smith's (video is posted below). I obviously am not an expert at assessing a quarterback's ability, but Smith's form looks good. Prospects have time between the end of the season and the combine/pro day to work on things like that, but watching a bit of game tape of Smith shows a good throwing form then, too. 

Now let's talk numbers from his pro day. First, Smith ran a 4.51 40 yard dash. Yeah, Manziel ran a 4.68. Yes, you read that right; more than a tenth of a second faster than Manziel. He also had more than a 10' broad jump and did 18 reps of 225 lbs. Anthony Barr, most likely the second linebacker to come off the board, only did 15 reps at the combine. Brett Smith is an athlete.

Smith isn't big, about 6'2" and 205 lbs, but apparently he's been working to bulk up (cbssports.com). The biggest knocks on him are his lack of velocity on throws and the level of competition he played against. The velocity aspect he seems to have improved upon by working on his form. When he pushes off his back foot correctly, he has plenty of oomph on the ball. He doesn't have a big arm, either, but that's only when comparing him to Derek Carr and Zach Mettenberger. One source said he needs to get better in his pocket presence, but in watching a bit of game tape, I didn't think that was such an issue. Either he gets rid of the ball quickly, or his offensive line is collapsing too quickly to really do anything but get out of there.
from: reporterherald.com
Smith does force some throws occasionally, but most of the time he's hitting the receiver through a tight window. Since he's getting rid of the ball so quickly, his ball placement has to be spot on. When you look at his numbers, you can see he's doing that very well. As his 40 time shows as well, when things break down Smith is very dangerous when he takes off.

To me, Smith seems like a quarterback who would benefit greatly from a specific system. I can see him having great production in a system like the Chiefs did with Smith this last year, and Russell Wilson with the Seahawks. What do they have in common with with the Vikings? A great run game. I'm not ashamed to say it, but the Vikings simply need a game manager, someone who won't turn the ball over. We have Adrian Peterson; we don't need Peyton Manning numbers.

A few months ago Brett Smith probably would have gone undrafted. After his pro day, his draft stock has increased. I could see him going as high as the bottom of the fifth, most likely in the sixth, but probably not in the seventh. The Vikings will want to take a quarterback before the fifth or sixth round, but like I mentioned in an earlier post, this may be a good draft to take a second quarterback. Something would have to be done with Christian Ponder, but if Spielman takes Blake Bortles in the first, then someone like Logan Thomas or Brett Smith could turn out to be a smart decision. 

Last, I'd like to leave you with some video of Smith playing Air Force. Remember that play by Manziel where he looked like he was going to tuck and run but a defensive player got in his way? He jumped, ran into an offensive lineman, spun and rolled to his left and hit a receiver near the sideline for an easy touchdown run. You are more than welcome to watch this whole video, but at least check out the play starting at 2:58; you'll see why some people have compared Smith to Manziel.

Under the Radar 2014 Draft Prospects: LB Kyle Van Noy, BYU

Van Noy was a tough one to lump under this heading as he isn't one you'd think of as 'under the radar'. That's because most of us have heard of him. He's ranked as the third best pass rushing linebacker, behind Khalil Mack and Anthony Barr (though Dee Ford and Jeremiah Attaochu could also be ahead of him). However, the same things that are being said about Mack-that he could play any linebacker position in any system, and a 4-3 defensive end in a pinch-are being said about Van Noy. At 6'3" and 245 lbs, he's about the same size as the other two. The only thing certain about when he will go in the draft is that it will be after Mack and Barr. Other than that. he's been predicted to go all over the place. I wanted to see why so many people have differing opinions of him.
from: usatoday.com
There are so many good websites that have detailed descriptions of draft prospects. Most include stats from the player's career, and some include all the combine measurables. Bleacherreport.com is one of those. His height and weight are mentioned above, but his other measurables include a 31 5/8" arm length, and 9 5/8" hands. According to people who know these things, those are a bit on the small side. None of his workouts wowed: a 32 1/2" vertical jump, a 9'4" broad jump, and a very average 4.71 40 yard dash. That's the evidence people who believe Van Noy is a second round prospect at best, if not a third or even fourth, point to. His lack of athleticism means his potential is limited, some say. Bleacherreport.com does cite the lack of athleticism as a knock on Van Noy, and they also list his poor man coverage ability. But his list of positives is much longer. By far his best aspect is his instincts. He may not be the fastest player on the field, or even the top ten fastest on the field, but you wouldn't know it by watching his tape. His reaction to the play is so quick that he can usually get a step or two before anyone else reacts. Along with instincts, Van Noy will go for the ball. A few times I saw he went for the sack but saw a better chance to strip the ball. That results in quick turnovers and more chances for his team to score, something that every team would love. Being toted as a 3-4 rushing linebacker, he would obviously need to have good pass rushing moves. Bleacherreport.com says he does, especially his spin move back to the inside gap. He can set the edge in the run game, which would be a necessary skill for an outside linebacker in a 3-4. The last positive I keyed in on was that he has experience at multiple defensive positions. While I doubt anyone would stick him back as a safety, he could comfortable play all linebacker spots in any scheme, and though undersized, could hold his own as an end in a 4-3.

Now let's go to a side that doesn't think Van Noy is so great. The draft profile on nfl.com lists the same strengths and weaknesses that bleacherreport.com does, but adds a few other weaknesses that stood out to me. They say he is a "hit-or-miss run defender", which is not good if you're a linebacker. The best linebackers are often described as tackling machines (see: Kuechly, Luke). He's also stuck with an average motor so they say. That's never a good thing. Their overall assessment is that is a best fit as a 3-4 outside linebacker, but could probably manage as a Will or Sam linebacker in a 4-3. Nfl.com says he's a 3rd or 4th round pick. Ouch. This profile, however, does mention some of the off-field issues Van Noy has struggled with, which are minor, but they add to an assessment of who he is. I'm not going to put them down here, but here's the link if you'd like to read them: Kyle Van Noy NFL.com Draft Profile.

Obviously I don't agree with that assessment, as I'm writing this piece because I think Van Noy would be a great fit with the Vikings. Hence my next source, a New York Giants blog of all things: Big Blue View on Kyle Van Noy. In Big Blue View, author Invictus XI sifts through all the defensive snaps Van Noy plays in BYU's game against Utah State and grades them in the same manner as ProFootballFocus would, +2 being the highest grade for a play and -2 the lowest. Granted, this was only one game, but Invictus XI comes to the conclusion that pass rushing seems to be Van Noy's weakest skill. His run stopping ability and zone coverage skills grade out much higher. The conclusion? He would be a great 4-3 linebacker!
from: examiner.com
The Vikings could easily and gladly find a place for Van Noy. I don't see him as a middle linebacker. He'd probably be better than Audie Cole, but Cole is a better middle linebacker than any of the other options we have at whatever outside spot Chad Greenway doesn't play. Oddly enough, when reading Van Noy's profile, I believe he sounds a lot like Greenway. They are about the same size, aren't amazing athletes, but they make up for it with awareness and instincts. You might say it would be better to have a different skillset for our other linebacker spot, maybe a better coverage linebacker (Christian Kirksey? Iowa tandem?), but Greenway is getting up there in age. He still has great awareness, but his burst and block shedding ability seem to be diminishing. Van Noy could provide the pop we need on the other side, with his burst and his pass rushing ability, allowing Greenway to drop into coverage a bit more or clean up the mess after the line of scrimmage pile breaks down. Remember what Mike Zimmer turned Vontaze Burfict into last year? Burfict used his crazy burst and block shedding ability to rack up the most tackles in the NFL. I think Van Noy could provide that same level of production, and probably almost immediately.

Now, where to select him? He's not a third or fourth round pick. If he falls to the back half of the second, someone is going to be very lucky. I don't want the Vikings to take Van Noy with the 8th overall pick, but I'm a little afraid that he won't be there when we pick in the second round. If a miracle happens and Mack falls to us, and we don't trade down then, we obviously don't need Mack. I would love for Van Noy to be available in the second when we pick, but he may go at the bottom of the first or the very top of the second. If we take a quarterback with the first pick, we may need to trade pack into the bottom of the first to grab Van Noy. If Spielman doesn't see a cornerback that he really likes in the second, I could see trading up being an option. Only six more days. Six more, agonizing, grueling days.

Thursday, May 1, 2014

Get to Know: General Manager Rick Spielman

How much do we really know about the Vikings front office? Maybe a lot, depending on who you are. For me, I only know what's briefly posted on ESPN, when something very good or something very bad has sent that official into the spotlight. In this series, I will take a deeper look at the Minnesota Vikings players and personnel.
from: tuesdaymorningfootball.com

We all hear about the general manager when draft season rolls around; that is, unless the general manager likes to stay out of that sort of thing. Rick Spielman, the general manager for the Minnesota Vikings, is not one such as that. He likes to be down on the field, if I may use a football analogy, when it comes to choosing which youngsters he wants to bring on the team. Most Vikings fans will know him as the man who drafted Christian Ponder 12th overall in the 2011 draft, a move Spielman will most likely try to make up for in this year's draft. But he's also brought us John Sullivan, Kyle Rudolph, Matt Kalil, Phil Loadholt, and Adrian Peterson. Outside the draft, he helped orchestrate the 2008 trade with the Kansas Chiefs to acquire Jared Allen, and the singing of Brett Favre in 2009.

But Spielman has done a lot more than just oversee many of the draft picks for the Vikings for the last few years. He started off as a college scout for the Detroit Lions in 1990 then added NFL scouting to his responsibilities in 1995. Two years later, he hopped over to the division rival Chicago Bears and worked as the Director of Pro Personnel, one of his main responsibilities being to manage and direct the pro scouts for the franchise.

In 2000, Spielman jumped from the cold winds of the NFC North to the division that stretches from the far northeast to the panhandle of the southeast,  the AFC East. Rick Spielman became the Vice President of Player Personal for the Miami Dolphins and two years later was promoted to the Senior Vice President of Football Operations/Player Personnel. I can honestly say, after much research, I'm not sure what all his responsibilities were, but they were many. He had his hands in everything from scouting current and potential players to managing the salary cap. He had mixed results there, however. He apparently worked hard and compiled extremely detailed scouting reports that were recommended to the head coach. That led to him being promoted to General Manager in 2204. Yet the Dolphins turned out a 4-12 record, which led Spielman to leave the franchise and all others a year later to work for ESPN's NFL Live.

That leads us to the Vikings. He started as the VP of Player Personnel in 2006 and was promoted to General Manager in 2012. There have been rumors that if Spielman can't secure a franchise quarterback in this draft that his time with the Vikings may be over. I'm thinking if he takes a quarterback in the first round who turns out to be a bust, that would definitely mean the end of him. If he should choose a quarterback in the later rounds, which I would prefer, I see Spielman staying on for another couple years. And I have no qualms about that.

But what about the man, you ask? Well, he's married and has six children, all of whom are adopted.  That shows us a lot. I read a brief article written by Steven Wine and published in the Ocala Star-Banner (you can find it here: Happy at Home) that highlights some of the issues Rick and his wife Michele experienced with a family from different cultural backrounds. The article was written back in 2006, after the Spielmans had adopted their third child, Whitney, from Puerto Rico. The two older boys, J.D. and Ronnie, are of African-American descent and are, of all things, great lacrosse players.

from: minnesota.cbslocal.com. Spielman's sons J.D. and Ronnie.

This year will mark the 15th year that the Vikings host the Adoption Family Fun Fest, a charity event that raises money to support adoption services. The families of Rick Spielman and Rob Brzezinski, the VP of Football Operations, hosted last year's event.

While the Vikings certainly do a lot of charitable work which Rick Spielman is likely involved with, taking a peak into who he is, in his career and away from it, gives us a better idea of who he is. For so long I only knew him as the man who handled the draft decisions, so I liked or disliked him based on how the players he drafted turned out. While that is a big part of his responsibility with the team, it's not his only job. And even though deep down we all know it, Rick Spielman, the general manager for the Minnesota Vikings, has a life outside of football as well.

*The information from this post was collected from various sites, including vikings.com, phins.com, and espn.com.